SWODY1
SPC AC 180529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL
TX...
...SERN KS/SWRN MO TO CNTRL TX...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST AT
ROUGHLY 30KT WHICH WOULD PLACE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...SSWWD INTO CNTRL TX BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY LAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY UP TO 100MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THUS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SLGT RISK WARM SECTOR AS
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO FULLY DESTABILIZE. GIVEN THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS KS/MO...SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX. THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE
EWD EXTENT OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO THAT REGION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
INTO CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE MAY
EVOLVE BY 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AS
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. EVEN
SO...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/18/2011
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