SWODY1
SPC AC 190023
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR SRN MO SWWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CNTRL TX...
...SRN MO INTO CNTRL TX...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM MO INTO TX NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER AN EWD ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL PROFILES
ALOFT. WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION HAS LED TO MAINLY
CELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. AREA 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH ONLY MODEST WLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KM.
GIVEN STORM MODE...AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONG FORCING...HAVE
DECREASED SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
REMAINING OVER THE ARKLATEX WHERE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING.
ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOCALIZED AND
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 09/19/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment