SWODY2
SPC AC 241619
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD
OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AB/SK DIGS
SEWD AND EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER IL/IND BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WITH NO APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL
DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE PENINSULA AND
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STILL...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009
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