SWODY3
SPC AC 130711
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS INTO THIS REGION WILL
MAINTAIN STRONGEST FORCING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SUGGEST MULTICELL-TYPE PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. DEEP SWLY
FLOW FAVORS WEAK BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY HAIL. GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL
BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER...LATER OUTLOOKS MAY BE ABLE TO DISCERN AN
ENHANCED RISK AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
.DARROW.. 05/13/2007
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