DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260901
SWOD48
SPC AC 260901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO DAY 6/THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM
POSSIBLE ON MOST /IF NOT ALL/ OF THESE DAYS GIVEN SEASONALLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH...WHILE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HR...PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF
SPECIFIC 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE
00Z ECMWF STILL FEATURES A SLOWER /SUBJECTIVELY PREFERRED/ SOLUTION
AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SCENARIO IS UNCLEAR
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS ARE MOST PROBABLE
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK AND PARTS
OF KS ON DAY 4/THURSDAY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY CONSIDERABLY INCREASES INTO DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHIFT EASTWARD ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER/MIDDLE VALLEY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY AND
EVEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

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