Friday, January 6, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061915
SWODY1
SPC AC 061913

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AT 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO SWRN LA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW THUS FAR...AS INDICATED BY LIMITED LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE 1630Z FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED.

..PETERS.. 01/06/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE NW AND
N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS TROUGH...AND A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...HAS LED TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SE TX AND W/SW LA. LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AT BEST INLAND OVER SE TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...A LOW END TSTM RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE SE AR/NRN MS
AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING
INFLUENCE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WAA REGIME
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

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