SWODY1
SPC AC 021245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC IMPULSES WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS DEEP CIRCULATION MOVES E FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE SCALE DISTURBANCES
...RCKYS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY E INTO THE HIGH PLNS AS SRN STREAM
JET UNDERCUTTING IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING S FL /S OF TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IN THE CAROLINAS/...MAINE /DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSE AS IT TURNS NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA/...AND THE PAC NW /WHERE
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPR TROUGH/.
...INTERIOR PAC NW...
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SPREAD INCREASING
UVV ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PAC NW TODAY.
COUPLED WITH MODEST AFTN HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID LVL
MOISTURE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD BANDS OF CONVECTION/STORMS...
DESPITE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.
STRENGTHENING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELD...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL. BUT DEGREE OF MID/UPR LVL BUOYANCY /CAPE AOA 250 J PER
KG/ NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER.
...CO/NRN NM AND ADJACENT HI PLNS...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MOISTURE
POCKET IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE ESE WITH THE 20-25 KT MID/UPR LVL FLOW...INTO REGION OF LOW LVL
SELY WINDS ALONG STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG.
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OF 25+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD
A STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST
THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SVR WILL BE MINIMAL.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/02/2008
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