SWODY2
SPC AC 020532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUPPORT MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMANATING FROM A STRONG GENERALLY
ZONAL PACIFIC JET...WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MINOR...IF ANY...CHANGE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CANADA...BUT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THE
EASTERN TROUGHS AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND...WHILE IT NOW APPEARS A BIT MORE POSSIBLE THAT A SURFACE FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MAY WEAKEN/REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
...FLORIDA...
AS THE FRONT REDEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
IT. CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF/MREF INDICATE
THAT A NARROW PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR SOON ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BEYOND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OF
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.
...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF ENOUGH MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF
THE PLATEAU REGION...FOR WEAK TO LOCALIZED MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE INHIBITION MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...MOISTENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...BUT OROGRAPHIC FORCING
BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES. STRONGER INHIBITION SEEMS LIKELY TO
EXIST EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE NEAR A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING.
..KERR.. 10/02/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment