SWOD48
SPC AC 020857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT GULF
MODIFICATION COULD BEGIN SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...AS THE AMPLIFIED
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH POSSIBLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. BUT...IF THIS TROUGH PROGRESSION OCCURS...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EXIST MONDAY...ALONG A
STRENGTHENING DRY LINE...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE 02/00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS STILL
APPEARS TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE...CONCERNING HOW FAST THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN BLOCK
WEAKENS...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE RESULTANT UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION...
LEADING TO EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 10/02/2008
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