SWODY3
SPC AC 020724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC...WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...LIKELY REACHING THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SLOW TO
WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... WITH
LINGERING MID/HIGH-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN CANADA.
...HIGH PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE SOME MOISTENING IS PROGGED THROUGH THE PLAINS BENEATH CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR STRONG/DEEP GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND
RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ZONES
OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU EARLY SATURDAY...TO PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE CURRENT TIME.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...COUPLED WITH MOISTENING
OFF THE PACIFIC...MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING/LIFT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE DIGGING UPPER JET
AXIS...WITH A 500 MB COLD CORE AT OR BELOW -20C DEVELOPING
INLAND...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT
LEAST THE GREAT BASIN. AND...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... PERHAPS LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.
..KERR.. 10/02/2008
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