SWODY1
SPC AC 021950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...
12Z U/A DATA INDICATED A POCKET OF COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKIES...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
SITUATED ON THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MODIFICATION OF 12Z DENVER SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
YIELDS STEEP LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...WAA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE WIDELY
SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PNHDL INTO WRN OK.
...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN INTO NRN ROCKIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN
ORE/NRN CA WHICH WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE
OF MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHEN COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. SIMILAR TO CNTRL ROCKIES...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
MORE VIGOROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
..MEAD.. 10/02/2008
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