DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040611
SWODY2
SPC AC 040610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WCOAST WILL BUCKLE OVER THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A POSITIVE-TILT SYSTEM. PRIMARY SFC LOW LOCATED
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY SATURDAY WILL MIGRATE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD INTO THE OH
VLY AND SRN STATES.

...GULF COAST...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS COVERING THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...TIED TO A 35-45 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
OTHER STORMS WILL BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF AR SWWD INTO CNTRL
TX.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AMIDST A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO THE OH VLY/LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SIXTY PLUS DEG SFC DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH THE MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ERN LA...SERN MS...AND SRN AL MAY YIELD EMBEDDED
STRONGER STORMS WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
HAIL. MUCH LOWER SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FARTHER INLAND WITHIN
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL DEVELOP SSEWD OFFSHORE IN SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG/N OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD AND/OR DEVELOP DISCONTINUOUSLY SEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/WRN LA AND SE/S TX THROUGH THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. COMPARATIVELY COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN AT
POINTS FARTHER E WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE A THREAT ACROSS ESPECIALLY S TX IF ANY STORM
CAN MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

..RACY.. 03/04/2011

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