SWODY1
SPC AC 181219
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E INTO ONTARIO BY
12Z/FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAILS SW FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...AND WILL MOVE
SWD TOWARD AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING S
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...A S/W TROUGH EXITING LA /WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT/ IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE.
...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY COOL DURING THE DAY
AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES SE OUT OF BC AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE ONSET
OF AFTERNOON HEATING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FAVORED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF A STABILIZING SURFACE
AIRMASS.
...SW NEB AND EXTREME NW KS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S INTO KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOPING NWD WITH HEIGHT BACK INTO NEB. DEFORMATION
ALONG THE ASSOCIATED HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH.
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER COMBINED WITH SATURATING
AIRMASS ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE /ROOTED NEAR 700 MB/...AND MAY FAVOR ELEVATED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES
WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.
..GARNER/EVANS.. 03/18/2010
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