SWOD48
SPC AC 180842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SUNDAY...PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS OUT
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
BUT THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...AND ITS
IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... REMAINS A CONCERN AS A
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO
REASONABLY OUTLOOK A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER
FLOW REGIME BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY THAT TIME.
..KERR.. 03/18/2010
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