SWODY3
SPC AC 180725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LWR MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES....
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE
FLATTENED AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
BEGINS TO MIGRATE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG
DIGGING DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES INTO A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES...INTENSIFIES SUBSTANTIALLY AND CONTRIBUTES TO
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...PARTS OF LWR MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR CONCERNING
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH...VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
ITS TRACK AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES MAY NOT BE
EXTREME...THEY MAY STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE A CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE PROBABLE
ABSENCE OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
MODIFICATION...BUT INLAND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED TO
MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AT BEST. STILL...GIVEN THE COLD
NATURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE STRONG FORCING...AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SEEM TO EXISTS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD THE CURRENT SLOWER/MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF...SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 03/18/2010
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