SWODY2
SPC AC 181743
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SRN PLAINS
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TX SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS BE
IN THE LOWER 50S F WITH LOWER-END MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN WRN OK
AND NW TX BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO A LINE
MOVING SEWD TOWARD DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND SWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTH TX
AND SW OK EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW IMPRESSIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE
OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FOR THIS REASON...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE...A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE LATE EVENING
SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME
FRIDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 03/18/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment