SWODY1
SPC AC 120550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES AS NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM /NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/
INTENSIFIES WHILE EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/
MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...LOWER LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER UT WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH CO/NM TODAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. TRAILING...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY TODAY OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
THROUGH CO/NM WILL FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG LEE TROUGH.
A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEWD INTO REGION. WHILE INCREASING...
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
OF 20-25 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ANY EXISTING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.
.MEAD/GUYER.. 09/12/2007
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