SWODY2
SPC AC 120717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/N CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EWD
WITH TIME...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CONUS. IN CONJUNCTION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN OK BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
..CENTRAL PLAINS...
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING
FRONT...AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F/ SPREADS
NWD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GREATEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM IA/NRN MO WSWWD ACROSS
KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND UVV INVOF THE FRONT
MAY LOCALLY WEAKEN THE CAP -- RESULTING IN ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS -- AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE N OF THE FRONT.
IN ANY CASE...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INVOF THE FRONT. THUS -- COMBINATION OF ISOLATED STORMS AND
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.GOSS.. 09/12/2007
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