SWODY3
SPC AC 120732
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST STATES
AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
..WRN NY/WRN PA/ERN OH/WV...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MARGINAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL W OF
THE FRONT...MODERATE /20 TO 40 KT/ ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ATOP THE BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A
LINE ALONG THE FRONT -- WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS. WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
EXIST ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS THIS
REGION.
.GOSS.. 09/12/2007
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