SWODY1
SPC AC 121231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS PERIOD AS
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE GRT LKS YESTERDAY CONTINUES NE TO LABRADOR
AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS AMPLIFIES SE
INTO ND/MB. FARTHER S...VORT MAX NOW OVER SW CO SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY
SE INTO NRN NM LATER TODAY...AND INTO W TX TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM LOW
WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE WARM FRONT EVOLVES AND
LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. IN THE NWRN GULF...WEAK
TROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE A BIT FARTHER W AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY BEFORE LIFTING MORE N TOWARD THE PSX OR HOU/GLS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY.
..SRN HI PLNS...
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF AMPLIFYING CANADIAN
UPR IMPULSE. A DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER ERN NM AND SE CO. SFC HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR VORT SHOULD FOSTER TERRAIN-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CNTRL NM BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS
FORMING A BIT LATER ALONG LEE TROUGH.
BELT OF 20-25 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO VORT WILL
ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...BUT DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LYR...SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME CLUSTERING OF
ACTIVITY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND/OR BRIEFLY SVR WIND GUSTS E INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LWR LVLS
COOL AFTER DARK.
..MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CST...
APPROACH OF NWRN GULF TROPICAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX
GULF CST TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, GIVEN VERY RICH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...SETUP COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE
OR SEMI-DISCRETE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOW LVL STORM ROTATION.
WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INTENSIFY...OVERALL
WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND ANY TORNADO THREAT POSED SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/12/2007
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