Wednesday, September 12, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130013
SWODY1
SPC AC 130011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE UPPER TX COAST AND WRN
LA COAST...

..WESTERN GULF COAST...

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO CONTINUES ITS SLOW NWD DRIFT TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST. STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW SPREADING
INLAND...MAINLY WITHIN THE NERN QUAD OF CYCLONE. VWP DATA FROM HGX
AND LCH HAVE NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS/SHEAR AS EXPECTED REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE INVOF CIRCULATION CENTER. AS HUMBERTO MOVES INLAND SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND
ATTENDANT LOW TORNADO THREAT.

..ELSEWHERE...

STRONG SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHARP FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ND TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS MAINLY NRN MN INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

AS TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE FROM THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM/FAR WEST TX.

.DARROW.. 09/13/2007

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