Wednesday, September 12, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 122001
SWODY1
SPC AC 121959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN LA...

..SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND HAS BEEN UPGRADED BY THE NHC TO TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTH AND
NNEWD DIRECTION INTO SERN TX TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM
NHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ALONG THE TX COAST
NEWD INTO SRN LA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS
EAST AND NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY.


..ERN NM THROUGH THE WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN
NM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING ESEWD THROUGH
SRN CO. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST FROM MUCH OF NM NEWD
INTO PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 MLCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE
ADVECTED NWD BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BELT OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FLOW ATTENDING SEWD MOVING VORT MAX HAS
SPREAD OVER NM...BUT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AOB 30 KT ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DIAL.. 09/12/2007

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