SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121151
LAZ000-TXZ000-121445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS SE TX...EXTREME SWRN LA.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 121151Z - 121445Z
CLUSTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND TO
MOVE ONSHORE PRIMARILY FROM MATAGORDA COUNTY TX THROUGH CAMERON
PARISH LA THROUGH MIDMORNING. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD
OCCUR...LOCALLY APCHG 3 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES.
SFC ANALYSIS AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST E OF BUOY 42019...MOVING
SLOWLY/ERRATICALLY ATTM. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING
GRADUALLY DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS FROM COASTLINE SWD OVER GULF...IN
NERN QUADRANT OF ASSOCIATED LOW-MIDLEVEL CYCLONE. TWO
CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT AREAS ARE INDICATED --
1. AREA OF PRONOUNCED SFC SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG COASTLINE
CORRESPONDING TO SFC TROUGH AND ROUGHLY 90 DEG SELY-NELY
WINDSHIFT...AND ALSO...
2. SSE-NNW ALIGNED BAND OF STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE CORRESPONDING TO
BUILDING/BKN CONVECTIVE BAND WITH NORTHERN TERMINUS OVER BPT
AREA...WHERE IT INTERSECTS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS.
AREA OF INTERSECTING CONVERGENCE AXES INVOF BPT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORED LOCALE FOR MOST PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING/MERGING
ACTIVITY...MIXTURE OF WARM CLOUD AND DEEPER/TSTM PROCESSES WILL
PERSIST ALONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SWWD PAST GLS/FREEPORT AREAS.
VERY RICH PW -- AROUND 2.25 INCHES PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE
RAOBS...WITH GPS PW DATA UNAVAILABLE ATTM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG OVER GULF COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS
ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH...IN SUPPORT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN CONVERGENCE ZONES.
.EDWARDS.. 09/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
28699575 29289571 29799538 30399394 30159307 29769285
29649384 29679406 29399468 29309474 29059511
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