DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041225
SWODY1
SPC AC 041224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE TIED TO THE UPPER WAVE WILL
PROGRESS IN A SIMILAR WAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES E
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SWWD EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY SETTLE SWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS BY
05/12Z. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORCED BY THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM OK/KS NEWD INTO LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING. A MOIST AND WEAKLY
BUOYANT AIRMASS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION
NEWD INTO WRN ME. ELSEWHERE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
S ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
AR/MO BORDER SWWD INTO ERN OK/NRN TX TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ABOVE THE FRONT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS YIELD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/04/2012

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