DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 042000
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OK/SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...
NEGLIGIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SEE PRIOR REASONING AS BELOW.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK...INITIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/PORTIONS OF MO/NORTHERN OK...AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012/

...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SWWD FROM A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM MN
INTO ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE FRONT FROM FAR SE
KS/SW MO INTO NE OK. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
LOW THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST.

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