MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2022

ACUS11 KWNS 042139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042139
FLZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042139Z - 042345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA MAY CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT ALREADY TAKEN
PLACE. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS STRONGEST ALONG THE WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE
THAT HAS SHIFTED INLAND SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS WILL
FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR/NORTH OF THE
SARASOTA AREA TOWARD OCALA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
GAINESVILLE TOWARD LOCATIONS WEST OF ORLANDO INVOF AN AGGREGATE
EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH AROUND 20 KT
OF FLOW WITHIN THE 4.5-6.5-KM-AGL LAYER PER TAMPA BAY AREA VWP
DATA...STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE NWWD AND EXHIBIT PULSE TO
OCCASIONALLY MULTICELLULAR MODES. PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LACKING WITH ANY STRONG-STORM THREAT ISOLATED
PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29448139 28808138 28478158 28228186 28018219 27858251
27878275 28278268 28808262 29418262 29768243 29928204
29448139

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