ACUS01 KWNS 050056
SWODY1
SPC AC 050053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN OK/NWRN AR NEWD INTO CNTRL MO...
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME THAT HAS
OOZED SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY AREA
VWP DATA THAT DEPICT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES ABOVE A
SHALLOW LAYER OF NLY/S. AND...WITH THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING
POST-SFC-FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. OVER
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN EML WELL SAMPLED BY THE 00Z NORMAN OK
RAOB...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR NEARLY SATURATED PARCELS ROOTED BETWEEN
850 AND 800 MB. WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/05/2012
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