DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041731
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A
DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH OTHERWISE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE PLAINS.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVANCING COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/MO/NORTHWEST AR INTO
THE MIDWEST. THE RELATIVELY STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/GREATEST
BUOYANCY...ALBEIT MODEST...ON FRIDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS. IN THESE
AREAS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPDRAFTS ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONT
MAY BE SHEARED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED/STRONG
TSTMS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD /LIKELY ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS/. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE APPROACHED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AR/ARKLATEX VICINITY NEAR A
POSSIBLE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...SUCH THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE BASED
TSTMS /WITH WIND/ MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2012

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