SWOD48
SPC AC 140831
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THOUGH MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...PREDICTABILITY STILL REMAINS LOW BEYOND DAY 6 DUE TO LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONSENSUS BETWEEN LATEST RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MREF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATES THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN STATES DAY 4 WILL
CUTOFF OVER THE SWRN U.S. BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
DAY 8.
WHILE MODIFIED CP AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE AXIS BY 5...THE WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM OK INTO NRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DAYS 5-6 AS A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH RETURNING
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN A HIGHER RISK CATEGORY. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DAY 5 OVER SRN AZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW.
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL UPPER LOW THAT MAY
CUTOFF OVER THE SWRN U.S. EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATER DAY 8
AT THE EARLIEST...BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME.
..DIAL.. 10/14/2010
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