SWODY1
SPC AC 141235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER NERN NC AND FAR SERN
VA...
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION AND ASSUME A
NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED...POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATES
FROM MI/IND/OH ESEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT
FALLS PROGRESSIVELY SPREADING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHICH WILL HASTEN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFFSHORE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA/NC INVOF A
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE COAST
TODAY...WITH EXPANDING AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ALONG WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT CASTING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH INFLOW AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE
TODAY.
06Z MESOSCALE AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERHAPS BEING AUGMENTED BY ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG THE NC
OUTER BANKS. THE GIVEN SETUP APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/14/2010
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