SWODY1
SPC AC 130554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN STATES TO LOWER MO VALLEY AND PART OF UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE PARENT SWRN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK ENEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA/NRN MEXICO...AND REACH THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT THE PARENT TROUGH TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP ALONG AND NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
JETS TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
AZ/NM...NEWD ACROSS OK/KS...AND SPREADING INTO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.
...THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /60-100
METERS AT 500 MB/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 14/00Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MARKED RESPONSE IN
THE SLY LLJ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN TURN STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT.
...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP OBSERVED OVER SWRN TX PER
00Z SOUNDINGS WILL SPREAD NEWD GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THIS FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VALID
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED...WEAK INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/ MAY
SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME LOCAL HAIL MODEL
SUGGESTS VALUES WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 12/13/2011
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