SWODY1
SPC AC 131947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN
AZ WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE AT TIMES PRODUCED ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...HOWEVER MOST
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR DISCHARGE
NORTH OF THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER. EVEN SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH
OF MID LEVEL JET CORE WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 12/13/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011/
...SWRN STATES...
STRONG PV-ANOMALY JUST SW OF KSAN AT MID-MORNING WILL TURN ENE
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES TDY/TONIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER AZ INTO NM. ISOLD STG TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER THE SRN AZ DESERTS AMIDST COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LIFT. HOWEVER...SVR PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
STG SSWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INTERSECTING LLJ WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM TX PNHDL TO
MO/IA WILL RESULT IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/ELEVATED TSTMS. COMPARATIVELY WARMER/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY ADVECT NWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX/SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE
STRONGER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CAPPING CONCERNS WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION ROOTED
JUST ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...NO SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED.
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