Tuesday, December 13, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131622
SWODY1
SPC AC 131620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES...
STRONG PV-ANOMALY JUST SW OF KSAN AT MID-MORNING WILL TURN ENE
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES TDY/TONIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER AZ INTO NM. ISOLD STG TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER THE SRN AZ DESERTS AMIDST COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LIFT. HOWEVER...SVR PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
STG SSWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INTERSECTING LLJ WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM TX PNHDL TO
MO/IA WILL RESULT IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/ELEVATED TSTMS. COMPARATIVELY WARMER/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY ADVECT NWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX/SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE
STRONGER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CAPPING CONCERNS WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION ROOTED
JUST ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...NO SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/13/2011

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