SWOD48
SPC AC 130921
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW...SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA...BY LATE THIS WEEK. EVENTUALLY...AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THIS PROCESS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 12/13/2011
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