SWOD48
SPC AC 030834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREAFTER...PREDICTABILITY WANES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE
STOUT ERN CONUS RIDGE.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THU-FRI...RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE SRN/ERN CONUS IN PRECEDING DAYS...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
RICHER MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LONGITUDINALLY CONFINED.
THUS...THE AXIS OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ON A GIVEN DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NARROW...AND WITH MODERATE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON
THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES...PRECLUDE ANY OUTLOOK OF 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment