SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040006
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-040100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...
VALID 040006Z - 040100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
CONTINUES.
COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB...WITH 00Z
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS PLACING A MESOLOW NEAR SNY...AND A COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NNE INTO S CNTRL SD. TWO
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN THE WW...WITH
ONE OVER MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES NEB AND ANOTHER OVER CHERRY
COUNTY NEB AND BENNETT/TODD COUNTIES SD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
CLUSTERS...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY...WITH A COLD POOL RAPIDLY SURGING EWD ACROSS CHERRY
COUNTY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO...WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/MESOLOW...WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE.
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS /WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS/ TRANSLATING ENEWD.
..ROGERS.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40910079 40920406 43810423 43810082 40910079
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