SWODY1
SPC AC 040046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
...CNTRL-NRN PLAINS...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER WY/WRN SD WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NE CO TO SCNTRL SD EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ENE ALONG NRN
EXTENTS OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE...AND PERHAPS BEHIND IT CLOSER
TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ERN SD...EXTREME
SERN ND AND WRN MN. 00Z ABR SOUNDING EXHIBITS AROUND 7 DEG C PER KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES TO 2600 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
FARTHER S...SRN EXTENT OF EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AS COLD POOLS CONTINUE TO MATURE. DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY...STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A MORE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT SURGING NWD FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE
OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH TIME AT LONGITUDES FARTHER E IN NEB.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
RELATIVELY MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL
IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN WY EARLY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK 700 MB IMPULSE TRANSLATING NE WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
MID-EVENING AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
NEXT WAVE...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE WRN STATES TROUGH AND EJECT NE INTO WY LATER TONIGHT. MORE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN/ERN WY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.
..RACY.. 07/04/2010
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