Saturday, July 3, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031717
SWODY2
SPC AC 031716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NEWD ACROSS TX/OK/KS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SURGE EXCEED 2 INCHES AND LAPSE RATES ARE ACCORDINGLY
QUITE WEAK. THIS WILL POSE INSTABILITY ISSUES SUNDAY AS HEATING
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE.
THE STRONGEST ZONE OF HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NM
INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL ACROSS
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN CO/WRN KS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WRN PLUME OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL WARRANT
MORE THAN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INADEQUATE FOR MORE THAN LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

..DARROW.. 07/03/2010

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