MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189

ACUS11 KWNS 031908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031907
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NWRN AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
MN...AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031907Z - 032000Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON /21-23Z/.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN ERN ND
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED IN SERN MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH
ERN ND /NEAR JMS/ INTO CENTRAL SD. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE TO AT OR ABOVE 90 F...SBCINH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWING THIS
TREND UNDERWAY FROM ERN SD/SERN ND INTO WRN MN. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR
MASS WILL SOON BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD WILL BE
NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT. LIGHTNING DATA SINCE 1745Z SHOWED TWO BRIEF TSTMS OVER ERN
ND...WITH BOTH CELLS LOCATED INVOF THE FRONT OVER FAR NERN ND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT AS SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO
FAVOR MULTICELLS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO
THIS REGION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45369944 46659861 48449746 48999723 49029500 47589533
46569571 45199663 44769823 45369944

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