SWODY1
SPC AC 031928
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REMAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
ACROSS WY HAS AIDED IN RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NIOBRARA/PLATTE/GOSHEN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NEWD AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
MOISTURE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS.
ADDITIONALLY...NELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL SD WHERE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. LATEST ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL MAY
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN THICKER CLOUD CANOPY
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK ARE EXPECTED.
..DARROW.. 07/03/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010/
...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WRN U.S TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS S/WV TROUGH EMERGES OUT INTO
NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. A STREAM OF VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW/S UPWARDS
TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT. FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SSWWD THRU CENTRAL
SD TO NWRN NEB.
STRONGER FLOW AND ENERGY FROM APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN TO W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF MDT
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
INITIATE SURFACE BASED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON
FROM NWRN CORNER MN TO CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RANGING UPWARD FROM AROUND 8C/KM NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TO ABOVE
9 C/KM WRN NEB...COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WRN NEB INTO SRN
SD WHERE LAPSE RATES AND CAPES WILL BE THE GREATEST. ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE PRIMARILY DIURNAL REGIME WILL BE IN THE NRN
PLAINS WHERE A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS MN GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW.
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