MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1188

ACUS11 KWNS 031802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031802
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-031930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031802Z - 031930Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY...THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS FAR SWRN SD. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...THEN EXTENDING W-SW THROUGH THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO
SERN WY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOW 80S F
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /EVIDENT BY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/. AS A
RESULT...CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER SERN WY...WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED DURING THE LAST 30 MIN. MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB...AND WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
BE DRAWN WWD TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AIDING IN STORM
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING
EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILER DATA INDICATES
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AOA 40 KT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. INITIAL SVR THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER SERN WY WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST...BUT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE/WRN NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT
CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE.

..GARNER.. 07/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 41070586 41720650 42700623 43320502 43330295 42330206
41600223 41020321 40970488 41070586

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