SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032227
SDZ000-NEZ000-032330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032227Z - 032330Z
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO A WW IS LIKELY BY 23 TO 00Z.
AT 22Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WEST OF ABR SWWD TO NEAR BFF IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
WRN NEB NEAR THE FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE...EVIDENT IN WATER IMAGERY OVER ERN WY...SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH
SD. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING...THUS FAR...HAS BEEN WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE WAVE OVER WY SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
THE 35-40 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE
WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY EVEN SUPPORT
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL... THOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A
LINEAR MCS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THEN BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..IMY.. 07/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 45879905 45749767 45169701 42589754 42100047 42980074
43800086 45670078 45879905
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