WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440

WWUS20 KWNS 032224
SEL0
SPC WW 032224
MNZ000-NDZ000-040600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROSEAU MINNESOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD ERN ND AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR TODAY BY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/CAPPING...AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...RECENT
INDICATIONS IN OBJECTIVE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CAP
HAS WEAKENED AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 30KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...CARBIN

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