SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040121
TXZ000-040345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TEX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 040121Z - 040345Z
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
EARLIER VSBY SATELLITE AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL BUT
DISTINCT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LBB. THIS FEATURE HAD BEEN MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 12 KT THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE IT SOUTH OF CDS AT 10Z.
DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING...VERY MOIST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS...PW
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. ADDITIONALLY...850 MB SELY
WINDS AT 30 KT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE AND THE AFFINITY FOR THESE
WARM CORE SYSTEMS TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THEIR CENTERS AT
NIGHT...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR
MAY PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS.
..IMY.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32800223 33230273 33790229 34300172 34490085 34430022
34220007 33510007 33130049 32940105 32800223
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