SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040118
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...
VALID 040118Z - 040245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
CONTINUES.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WATCH 440 HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPPING AND GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. MOST INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND...DESPITE THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN ERN ND
ATTM...UPDRAFTS HAVE ENCOUNTERED CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION.
THERE ARE CONTINUING ATTEMPTS AT DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT FROM SERN ND INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MN. ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS HAS ALSO MAINTAINED SOME
INTEGRITY IN THE NORTH OF MN...NOW MOVING FROM KITTSON COUNTY INTO
ROSEAU COUNTY.
LATEST INDICATIONS IN OBJECTIVE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS STRONG INHIBITION IS SLOWLY OVERCOME AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM NERN MT AND PROVIDES AN INCREASE
IN BACKGROUND ASCENT NECESSARY TO AID DEEPER LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN DEGREE OF AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR...RESULTING STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.
..CARBIN.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48999886 48979374 45919562 45840049 48999886
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