SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040145
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-040245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN NEB...ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...
VALID 040145Z - 040245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
CONTINUES.
A MCS POSITIONED OVER S CNTRL SD/ N CNTRL NEB WILL PROPAGATE EWD
INTO THE WW AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
LESSER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL STILL EXIST. 01Z SUBJECTIVE SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO
NWRN NEB. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES PER
00Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS/ IS IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WILL CREATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N IN NERN SD ...BUT AS
FORCED ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER WRN NEB...AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO....WITH
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NERN SD. WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES.
..ROGERS.. 07/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41740008 45939997 45939683 41769721 41740008
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