SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150011
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-150215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150011Z - 150215Z
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GULF WILL SPREAD ONSHORE INTO
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND ACROSS THE NERN GULF...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA
SHORTLY. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AREA VWP DATA REVEALS AMPLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THUS...AS STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING
ONSHORE...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SERN AL/SWRN GA...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 11/15/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30538686 30878681 32078517 32348407 31898271 30488326
29458498 30088651 30538686
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