SWODY1
SPC AC 141601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...
...SERN STATES...
A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SERN
STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW S OF LA IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING
INTO A TROUGH AND WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE W
OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE LOCATED IN AREA OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES
RISE TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG NWD TO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
STRETCHES WSWWD FROM CENTRAL SC TO SERN AL.
WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL...THE
COMBINATION OF 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
HELICITY VICINITY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER BOWS/CELLS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SERN AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA/SC.
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
CAPE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 11/14/2008
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