SWODY1
SPC AC 150053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
GULF CST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...NERN GULF CST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
MID-LVL WAVE INVOF CNTRL GULF CST WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING
AND ACCELERATING NEWD. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH GA BY 06Z...AND THE
CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z. LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-TROP LAPSE RATES
WAS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH RESERVOIR OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S-LWR 70S/ IN PLACE OVER
THE NERN GULF. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/BUOYANCY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A POORLY MODELED FLARE-UP OF TSTMS OFF THE WRN FL PNHDL CST.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES NEWD...CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND INTO THE FL PNHDL...SE AL...AND CNTRL/SRN GA THIS EVE.
INCREASING LLJ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO ENHANCED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIKELY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR SUPPORTING A ROBUST SVR WEATHER EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SHORT-LIVED BOWS/LEWPS
PRODUCING DMGG WINDS. SOMEWHAT VEERED AND WEAK NATURE OF THE LLVL
WIND PROFILES /DUE IN PART TO EARLIER PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE SRN APLCNS/ WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE EJECTING WAVE
WHERE BACKING OF THE NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD OCCUR.
...SE/ECNTRL MS INTO CNTRL/NRN GA...
MID-LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG NW FRINGE OF THE EJECTING DISTURBANCE
AND INCREASING LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG
LARGER SCALE PLAINS TROUGH HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
DOWNSTREAM...BUT H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STEEPER. THUS...EXPECT THAT
MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH THE DEFORMATION AXIS FROM
ECNTRL/SE MS NEWD INTO CNTRL AL/NRN GA MAY GIVE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
..RACY.. 11/15/2008
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