MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2380

ACUS11 KWNS 142318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142317
SCZ000-GAZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142317Z - 150115Z

A SLOW/MODEST INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE BY MID-EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER MS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW NWD PROGRESS ACROSS GA/ERN SC THIS EVENING...AS A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION PER
LATEST WV LOOP -- CONTINUES EWD.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS -- AND SHOULD REMAIN -- QUITE LIMITED
GIVEN NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
600-700 MB...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE YIELDING CAPE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. INDEED -- AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE...DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE OF KM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.

STRONGEST CELLS OVER NRN GA WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ATOP A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NERN GA/NWRN SC. HOWEVER...STORMS
FURTHER S ACROSS S CENTRAL GA ATTM MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME...SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE ERN SC PORTION OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 33968004 33168026 31508231 31118307 31628397 33038421
33938341 33738159 33968004

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